Description: In this session 35TS of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, the instructor provides simple tools and guidelines to better ensure that correct conclusions are drawn. This material is presented without the use of complex mathematical formulas. Topics include appropriateness of the assumption of normality including discussion of the distribution of a conditional tail expectation, drawing inferences about population means and tail percentiles, and uses and pitfalls of linear regression analysis.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. In this Teaching Session the instructor discussed the importance of making sure the correct inferences were drawn from stochastic testing exercises. Topics included: 1. Applying the assumption of a normal distribution. 2. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, a population mean. 3. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, tail percentiles. 4. Certifying anticipated mortality under XXX in a mathematically concise way.

Description: In session 40PD of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, panelists discuss theories and assumptions underlying scenario generators, evaluating appropriateness of generated scenarios, choosing suitable economic scenario generators and use of representative scenarios.